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Abstract California experienced a historic run of nine consecutive landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) in three weeks’ time during winter 2022/23. Following three years of drought from 2020 to 2022, intense landfalling ARs across California in December 2022–January 2023 were responsible for bringing reservoirs back to historical averages and producing damaging floods and debris flows. In recent years, the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes and collaborating institutions have developed and routinely provided to end users peer-reviewed experimental seasonal (1–6 month lead time) and subseasonal (2–6 week lead time) prediction tools for western U.S. ARs, circulation regimes, and precipitation. Here, we evaluate the performance of experimental seasonal precipitation forecasts for winter 2022/23, along with experimental subseasonal AR activity and circulation forecasts during the December 2022 regime shift from dry conditions to persistent troughing and record AR-driven wetness over the western United States. Experimental seasonal precipitation forecasts were too dry across Southern California (likely due to their overreliance on La Niña), and the observed above-normal precipitation across Northern and Central California was underpredicted. However, experimental subseasonal forecasts skillfully captured the regime shift from dry to wet conditions in late December 2022 at 2–3 week lead time. During this time, an active MJO shift from phases 4 and 5 to 6 and 7 occurred, which historically tilts the odds toward increased AR activity over California. New experimental seasonal and subseasonal synthesis forecast products, designed to aggregate information across institutions and methods, are introduced in the context of this historic winter to provide situational awareness guidance to western U.S. water managers. 

Force production by actin–myosin cross-bridges in cardiac muscle is regulated by thin-filament proteins and sarcomere length (SL) throughout the heartbeat. Prior work has shown that myosin regulatory light chain (RLC), which binds to the neck of myosin heavy chain, increases cardiac contractility when phosphorylated. We recently showed that cross-bridge kinetics slow with increasing SLs, and that RLC phosphorylation amplifies this effect, using skinned rat myocardial strips predominantly composed of the faster α-cardiac myosin heavy chain isoform. In the present study, to assess how RLC phosphorylation influences length-dependent myosin function as myosin motor speed varies, we used a propylthiouracil (PTU) diet to induce >95% expression of the slower β-myosin heavy chain isoform in rat cardiac ventricles. We measured the effect of RLC phosphorylation on Ca 2+ -activated isometric contraction and myosin cross-bridge kinetics (via stochastic length perturbation analysis) in skinned rat papillary muscle strips at 1.9- and 2.2-µm SL. Maximum tension and Ca 2+ sensitivity increased with SL, and RLC phosphorylation augmented this response at 2.2-µm SL. Subtle increases in viscoelastic myocardial stiffness occurred with RLC phosphorylation at 2.2-µm SL, but not at 1.9-µm SL, thereby suggesting that RLC phosphorylation increases β-myosin heavy chain binding or stiffness at longer SLs. The cross-bridge detachment rate slowed as SL increased, providing a potential mechanism for prolonged cross-bridge attachment to augment length-dependent activation of contraction at longer SLs. Length-dependent slowing of β-myosin heavy chain detachment rate was not affected by RLC phosphorylation. Together with our previous studies, these data suggest that both α- and β-myosin heavy chain isoforms show a length-dependent activation response and prolonged myosin attachment as SL increases in rat myocardial strips, and that RLC phosphorylation augments length-dependent activation at longer SLs. In comparing cardiac isoforms, however, we found that β-myosin heavy chain consistently showed greater length-dependent sensitivity than α-myosin heavy chain. Our work suggests that RLC phosphorylation is a vital contributor to the regulation of myocardial contractility in both cardiac myosin heavy chain isoforms. 

In December 2004, Michael Stonebraker was selected to receive the 2005 IEEE John von Neumann Medal for his "contributions to the design, implementation, and commercialization of relational and object-relational database systems." Mike is the first person from the database field selected to receive this award. He joins an illustrious group of former recipients, including Barbara Liskov (2004), Alfred Aho (2003), Ole-Johan Dahl and Kristen Nygaard (2002), Butler Lampson (2001), John Hennessy and David Patterson (2000), Douglas Engelbart (1999), Ivan Sutherland (1998), Maurice Wilkes (1997), Carver Mead (1996), Donald Knuth (1995), John Cocke (1994), Fred Brooks (1993), and Gordon Bell (1992).